Hizbullah has new weapons to wage war

Teir Dibba ? The Shi'a "martyrs" of this hill village are normally killed in the dangerous, stony landscape of southern Lebanon, in Israeli air raids or invasions or attacks from the sea. The Hizbullah duly honors them. But the body of the latest Shi'a fighter to be buried here ? from the local Hashem family ? was flown back to Lebanon last month from Iran.
He was hailed as a martyr in the village Husseiniya mosque but the Hizbullah would say no more. For when a Lebanese is killed in live firing exercises in the Islamic Republic, his death brings almost as many questions as mourners. Yet it is an open secret south of the Litani River that thousands of young men have been leaving their villages for military training in Iran. Up to 300 men are taken to Beirut en route to Tehran each month and the operation has been running since November of 2006; in all, as many as 4,500 Hizbullah members have been sent for three-month sessions of live-fire ammunition and rocket exercises to create a nucleus of Iranian-trained guerrillas for the "next" Israeli-Hizbullah war.
Whether this frightening conflict takes place will depend on President Bush's behavior. If America ? or its proxy, Israel ? bombs Iran, the response is likely to be swift and will come from the deep underground bunkers that the Hizbullah has been building in the fields and beside the roadways east and south of Jezzine.

For months, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbullah leader, has been warning Israel that his organization has a "surprise" new weapon in its armory and there are few in Lebanon who do not suspect that this is a new Iranian-developed ground-to-air missile ? rockets which may at last challenge Israel's air supremacy over Lebanon. For more than 30 years, Israel's fighter-bombers have had the skies to themselves, losing only two aircraft ? one to a primitive Palestinian SAM-7 shoulder-fired missile, the other to Syrian anti-aircraft guns ? during and after its 1982 invasion.
After its 1980-88 war with Iraq, Iran introduced a new generation of weapons, one of which ? a development of a Chinese sea-to-sea missile ? almost sank an Israeli corvette in the last Hizbullah-Israeli war in 2006.
Can the Hizbullah shoot Israeli jets out of the sky in the event of another conflict? It is a question much discussed within the 13,000-strong United Nations force in southern Lebanon ? essentially a NATO-led army, which contains French, Spanish and Italian troops as well as Chinese, Indian and sundry other contingents ? which would find itself sandwiched between the two antagonists.
There are no armed Hizbullah fighters in their area of operations ? Nasrallah respects the U.N. resolution which placed the peacekeepers between the Israeli border and the Litani in 2006 ? but the U.N. mission, along with its soldiers, will be gravely endangered in the event of another war.
If its aircraft could no longer bomb at will over Lebanon without fear of being destroyed, would Israel stage another costly land invasion ? highly unlikely after the bloodying its troops took in 2006 ? or use its own ground-to-ground missiles on Lebanon? For if the latter option were chosen, it would bring a whole new dimension to Lebanon's repeated wars. Long-range missiles have proved hopelessly inaccurate in Middle East conflicts and the Iran-Iraq war. But whatever political sins they still commit, the Lebanese ? despite their current crisis ? appear to have rejected any return to civil war. In such a war, no one could repeat the old lies about "pinpoint accuracy."
The government of Fouad Siniora may be trapped in its own "Green Zone" in central Beirut ? it even refused to attend the Arab League summit in Damascus ? and parliament is suspended after 17 vain sessions to elect a president. A series of prominent Lebanese MPs and journalists have been murdered or attacked since 2005 but Syrian troops have left and the Lebanese army still manages to keep a form of order on the streets. However, the Syrian intelligence presence has been maintained in Lebanon ? and Syria is Iran's only ally in the Arab world. This does not mean that war is inevitable.
So the future of Lebanon remains ? as it did in 2006 ? in the hands of the United States and Iran. Just as the Israelis constantly warn of war, so the Hizbullah still promises revenge for the car-bomb murder of its former intelligence officer Imad Mougnieh in Damascus in February. Regularly, the Israelis warn that they will respond to attacks but that they will "choose the moment and the place and the means."
And sure enough ? following the Hizbullah's pattern of using Israel's own words ? Nasrallah said on 24 March that the Hizbullah would "choose the moment and the place and the means" to retaliate for Mougnieh's death.
And each month, the Hizbullah improves its new bunkers north of the Litani. Some now sprout aerials but they may be "dummies" for Israel's pilots to attack. Deep underground telephone land-lines have been laid to those which are visible and to those others which are beneath the surface. The Hizbullah learned a lot from the 2006 war. Then its secret bunkers were air-conditioned with beds and kitchens attached. But when Israeli troops discovered a handful of them, they also found copies of their own Israeli air force reconnaissance photographs, complete with Hebrew markings.
The Hizbullah had obviously bribed or blackmailed Israeli border guards for the pictures ? from which they could tell at once which bunkers the Israelis had identified and which remained unknown to them.
Which is how, in 2006, its guerrillas sat safely through days of air bombardment in the latter, while allowing the Israelis to blitz the "known" fortresses to their hearts' content. Who knows if the Hizbullah has not since collected a new batch of photographs for the coming months?

Reprinted from The Independent.By Robert Fisk -->

العدو ينهي مناورة جديدة لاستخلاص العبر من هزيمة تموز

أنهى جيش الاحتلال الاسرائيلي مناورة كبيرة اطلق عليها اسم تشابك الاذرع " ثلاثة" حضرها كبار القادة السياسيين والعسكريين والامنيين، وهدفت الى اختبار التنسيق بين اسلحة البر والبحر والجو في حال اندلاع القتال ضد سوريا وحزب الله. فضمن سلسلة الاستعدادات والمناورات تطبيقاً لما يُطلق عليه دروس حرب لبنان الثانية انهى الجيش الاسرائيلي مناورة كبيرة امتدت لخمسة ايام في قيادة المنطقة الشمالية اطلق عليها اسم تشابك الاذرع ثلاثة وبحضور كبار قادة اسرائيل حاكى فيها قتالاً على جبهتين بشكل متوازٍ مقابل سوريا و حزب الله في لبنان.المناورة ضمن سيناريو يتجاوز فيه فيلقان من الجيش الاسرائيلي للعمل داخل الاراضي السورية واللبنانية. وحملت هذه المناورة رسائل تهديد واضحة للطرفين رغم الحديث انها في سياق استخلاص العبر من حرب تموز.وقال رئيس كيان العدو الاسرائيلي شمعون بيريز: "انصح كل من يبحث عن الحرب بالحذر وعدم منازلة الجيش الاسرائيلي مثلما هو اليوم".اما رئيس اركان جيش الاحتلال غابي اشكنازي فقال من جهته: "هذه مناورة مهمة جداً على اعتبار انها قامت على التعاون بين مختلف الاذرع والمساعدة الجوية والبرية والعمل المشترك وجاءت ايضاً لتطبيق جزء من عبر الحرب السابقة".وسائل الاعلام لاسرائيلية قالت ان هدف المناورة هو اختبار اتخاذ القرار داخل الجيش الاسرائيلي في حال حصول اندلاع المواجهات في الشمال حيث شاركت وحدات من الجيش الاسرائيلي في قيادة الجبهة الشمالية، وتضمنت اختبار أساليب قتالية وتعاون بين القوات البرية والبحرية والجوية وأجهزة الاستخبارات والمنظومة اللوجستية ومنظومة المعالجة عن بعد اشتملت على تعرض الجبهة الداخلية لسقوط مئات الصواريخ وقيام الجيش الاسرائيلي بشن هجوم داخل اراضي العدو. وقال في هذا المجال اللواء يشاي بار قائد فيلق هيئة الاركان في جيش الاحتلال: "في هذا المركز نشغل كل المنظومات النارية التي لدينا اليوم في الجيش بما فيها منظومات مدفعية وسلاح موجه وكذلك المنظومات الجوية من طائرات ومروحيات قتالية". وهنا يقول رئيس اركان جيش الاحتلال غابي اشكنازي: "لا شك لدي ان وجود قيادتي فيلق ثابتتين ومدعومة من مناطقها هي اضافة في القوة للطريقة التي نتحرك فيها."القناة العاشرة في التلفزة الاسرئيلية علقت على المنارة بالقول إنَّها كانت مناورة هيكلية أي من دون قوات على الارض ودون إطلاق نار حي ولا يعني ذلك ان هناك حرباً في القريب.

The List: The World’s Top Religious Power Brokers

Meet five powerful preachers who can put the fear of God into any politician.
Pastor Rick Warren
Country: United States
Religion: Southern Baptist
Who is he? As founding pastor of one of America’s largest churches, with a congregation 23,000 strong in Orange County, Calif., Rick Warren enjoys moral and political clout in the United States and around the world. His 2002 book, The Purpose Driven Life, is the bestselling hardback in U.S. history and has sold more than 40 million copies worldwide. Powerful preachers are nothing new in American politics—Billy Graham advised U.S. presidents from Dwight D. Eisenhower to George W. Bush—and Warren seems perfectly positioned to take up the mantle for a new generation of evangelical voters.
Warren stayed neutral in the 2004 presidential race, but his reminder that certain issues were “nonnegotiable”—abortion, same-sex marriage, and euthanasia—made his tacit support for Bush clear. Yet Warren’s moderate message, emphasizing personal fulfillment and even traditionally liberal issues such as poverty, climate change, and HIV/AIDS, gives him appeal well beyond his conservative base. A televised forum at his Saddleback Church in August was the first time both candidates agreed to share the stage since becoming presumptive nominees. Warren’s close relationship with Barack Obama—the two have appeared together to speak on AIDS—has drawn ire from the right, but Pastor Rick sees the long game. Whichever candidate wins in November, he’ll likely be making a regular pilgrimage to Orange County for counsel and support.

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani
Country: Iraq
Religion: Shiite Islam
Who is he? One of the world’s most influential Shiite clerics, Sistani has also been called the most important leader in post-invasion Iraq. His followers, concentrated in Iraq and Iran, range in the millions and refer to him as their marja al-taqlid or “object of emulation.” Emerging from isolation after Saddam Hussein’s ouster, he fast became a hugely powerful figure, presiding over Iraq’s devoted Shiite majority and expanding his international network through offices in 15 countries. Sistani is also wired. His media center runs the most influential Web site in the Shiite world and answers nearly 1,000 questions a day from followers.
Sistani displayed his reach in January 2004 when he effortlessly orchestrated massive nonviolent protests demanding democratic elections and insisted on involving the United Nations. Images of Sistani are ubiquitous at Shiite rallies, and political parties have used them to drum up support in their campaigns, a practice now banned under Iraqi law. Today, with the deadline fast approaching for an agreement on U.S. troop withdrawal, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s government is intensely lobbying the ayatollah to support a deal.

Pope Benedict XVI
Country: Italy
Religion: Roman Catholic
Who is he? Dubbed “God’s Rottweiler” for his strict adherence to conservative Catholic doctrine, the man once known as Joseph Ratzinger was putting the fear of God into politicians before he even became the pontiff. Former U.S. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, a Catholic who supports abortion rights, felt his bite in 2004 when the then cardinal told U.S. bishops to refuse communion to pro-choice Catholics. Kerry wound up losing the traditionally Democratic Catholic vote to Bush.
The pope’s reach may be global, but Italian politics is where his influence is most keenly felt. His first big power play was in 2005, when he openly opposed efforts to overturn a law restricting medically assisted fertility procedures. The referendum failed by a large margin. Frustrated by Italy’s culture of materialism, Benedict called in September for the country to put forth a “new generation” of Catholic politicians, saying that Italian politics was in dire need of “committed lay Christians capable of seeking solutions of sustainable development with competence and moral rigor.” Then when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi pushed for unprecedentedly harsh punishments for illegal immigration, the Vatican publically criticized the measure, and Berlusconi had to meet with the pope to allay his concerns.
Archbishop Peter Akinola
Country: Nigeria
Religion: Anglican Christian
Who is he? Through his strident opposition to homosexuality, Akinola has made himself into a central figure in the global culture wars. Although the Anglican Church as a whole has moved toward greater tolerance of gays and lesbians, the head of the African Anglican Church has held to a strict traditionalist line, making himself the chief villain of liberal Western Anglicans but also earning himself millions of conservative fans worldwide. A number of American churches have even joined Akinola’s revolt, seceding from the United States’ gay-friendly Episcopal Church.
Akinola is also a major political player at home in Nigeria, a deeply religious country with almost 18 million active Anglicans. Politicians constantly inject God and religion into Nigeria’s politics, make a big show of donating money to churches, and benefit from the support of religious leaders. In his regular travels around the country, Akinola is known to pay visits to everyone from state governors to the president, urging them to “put God first.” In 2006, the government enacted a countrywide same-sex marriage ban at Akinola’s urging. Akinola’s policy advice can be remarkably specific, such as his recent demands for political leaders to prioritize the supply of electrical power, but his millions of devoted followers ensure that Nigerian politicians must continue to curry his favor.

Rabbi Ovadia Yosef
Country: Israel
Religion: Ultra-Orthodox Judaism
Who is he? Yosef is the spiritual leader of Shas, the haredi or ultra-Orthodox party that has become a key swing player in Israeli politics. One of the most powerful religious figures in Israel, Yosef has made it his mission to gain political clout for haredi Jews. He is known for his controversial sermons, incendiary remarks about Arabs, and sweeping damnations, such as when he called Hurricane Katrina “God's retribution.” Yosef, in other words, doesn’t seem like a figure who mainstream politicians would want to associate with. But Shas uses its 12 Knesset seats to exert disproportionate influence on Israeli politics—and, by extension, the Middle East peace process. The party has almost no support outside the ultra-Orthodox community, but maintains a loyal and vocal base of support within it.
Shas is notoriously fickle in its political associations. It’s generally considered conservative but has joined with politicians ranging in ideology from Yitzhak Rabin to Benjamin Netanyahu to advance the interests of its constituents, including state support for its religious schools and an undivided Jerusalem. In recent weeks, Shas held Israel in suspense as it deliberated whether to join a government led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. She grudgingly promised the party 1 billion shekel increase in child welfare, but was ultimately rebuffed by Yosef, forcing new elections.

from foreign policy by Rebecca Frankel

تنبؤ بزيادة الفيضانات والجفاف بسبب التغيرات المناخية

أعلنت دراسة، نشرت يوم الاربعاء، أعدتها اللجنة الحكومية للتغير المناخي والتي تقاسمت جائزة نوبل للسلام مع نائب الرئيس الامريكي السابق ال جور العام الماضي، أن الفيضانات في المناطق المعتدلة والاستوائية والجفاف في المناطق الجافة سيزيدان في القرن الحالي بسبب التغيرات المناخية.

وقالت الدراسة إن التغيرات في امدادات المياه العذبة سيكون لها أثر هائل على البشر وعلى البيئة.وأضاف التقرير، الذي نشر في الاجتماع السنوي للجنة الحكومية للتغير المناخي في بودابست، قوله ان معدل تساقط الأمطار سيزيد بشدة فوق معظم المناطق في القرن الحادي والعشرين بما يحمله هذا من عواقب لمخاطر فيضانات ناتجة عن الأمطار.وقال التقرير "في الوقت نفسه فان من المتوقع ان تزيد نسبة سطح الارض المعرضة لجفاف شديد."وصدر التقرير في وقت ترتفع فيه بشدة أسعار السلع الغذائية الرئيسية مثل الارز والقمح بسبب زيادة الطلب من آسيا وانخفاض الانتاج بسبب الأحوال الجوية السيئة.

وقال يفو دي بوير رئيس أمانة الامم المتحدة للتغير المناخي للصحفيين في بودابست ان الوضع يتكرر في دول نامية عديدة وسيزداد سوءا على الأرجح بسبب التغير المناخي. واضاف انه اذا لم يتخذ إجراء لتقليل آثار التغير المناخي فان 250 مليون شخص في افريقيا قد يعانون "ضائقة مائية" بمعنى انهم سيفتقرون السبيل للحصول على مياه كافية للشرب والزراعة بحلول 2020.وقال دي بوير ان تلك مشكلة ستتعدى حدود القارة وستشكل تحديا هائلا للحكومات في أنحاء العالم. ومضى قائلا "الخطر هو ان هؤلاء الناس لن يعود بوسعهم تدبير قوتهم وسيتعين عليهم ايجاد مكان آخر يذهبون له."(رويترز)